Last updated: 9 July 2026
The principle
ScanGoal measures the state of a football match in real time: who is pressing, how open the game is, whether a goal is brewing, how the market reacts. Every metric is a state signal, not a guaranteed prediction. We show what is happening on the pitch and in the line; the conclusions are yours.
Data sources
- Live stats (shots, corners, possession, dangerous attacks, cards) are collected by scrapers from several independent sources in real time and cross-checked against each other.
- Odds come from Pinnacle and betting exchanges; for live matches we store the full line movement history.
- Lineups and player ratings come from FlashScore.
- The database covers 1000+ leagues, including friendlies and lower divisions, with multi-year history.
The metrics
Dominance
A weighted match-control percentage. The weights are public: shots on target 30%, shots off 20%, corners 20%, possession 15%, dangerous attacks 10%, attacks 5%. A value of 70%+ highlights matches where one side has pinned the other back.
Pace
A 0–100 scale: how much more active the match is than usual at the current minute. Shots, chances, xG and corners are compared to a baseline — what historically happens by the same minute in similar matches. 80+ means the match is producing clearly more than the norm.
Over 2.5 probability
The estimated chance the match ends with 3+ goals, computed from the current score, time remaining and match tempo. Shown only where the signal is informative: not before minute 10, only while the total is still alive and live odds exist.
Power
Pre-match team strength based on expected goals (xG) — a rating built like chess Elo. The baseline for an even pair is 10.0; recent matches, home/away goals and opponent quality all feed in. Updated daily. Full guide: Power Rating explained
Momentum
A pressure chart in 3-minute slices: a weighted sum of shots, dangerous attacks, corners and final-third possession, normalised to the league level. Pattern guide: how to read the momentum chart
Effective handicap & total
The live line adjusted for the current score: how many goals are actually needed before full time for the bet to land. Next to it — how often each team covered that distance over its last 10 matches. Handicap and total basics are in the glossary: Asian handicap, totals
Value picks and the open track record
The model estimates outcome probabilities, strips the margin from the odds (devig) and compares its estimate with the market's. A pick is published only when the computed edge is material. Value betting basics: value bet, bookmaker margin.
The key point: the pick history is public — results included, losses included, with calibration and CLV tables from a multi-thousand-pick backtest. We do not show wins only. Check it any time on the picks page. Picks are also posted to the Telegram channel before kick-off: @scangoal
News
News is produced by an automated pipeline. Every item is grounded in a specific source; match facts and scores are verified against our database before publishing; quotes are kept verbatim; photos are checked to match the person. Items without a confirmed source are not published.
Limitations and responsible play
No metric guarantees an outcome. Dominance is a match-state signal, not a promise of a goal: a team can press all match and never score. Positive expected value shows only over a long series of bets; short samples are ruled by variance.
ScanGoal is an analytics tool — not a bookmaker and not financial advice. 18+. Betting is entertainment, not income: play responsibly. BeGambleAware · GamCare