Top value picks of the day

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
18:00 22.06	Odd BK — Flekkeroy 3 Division	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,44	1,88	+15,9%	59	—	form 90
15:00 22.06	Welayta Dicha — Ethio Electric Premier League	Total Under 1.5	1,79	1,99	+5,5%	30	—
20:45 22.06	Al Kuwait SC — AL Arabi (Kuw) League	Total Under 2.5	1,65	1,80	+5,1%	21	—
19:00 22.06	Fana — Sogndal 2 3 Division	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,83	2,00	+4,6%	31	—	form 66

🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)

Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked); realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.

Time	Match	Index	BTTS odds
21:45	Shelbourne — Bohemians Dublin	83	1,79
02:00	New York Red Bulls II — Toronto FC II	81	1,46
22:15	KR Reykjavik — IA Akranes	81	2,99
01:00	Columbus Crew 2 — Atlanta United II	78	1,33
20:00	Oddevold — Ljungskile	72	4,15

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.

Top value picks for 2026-06-22