The math
You estimate an outcome at 50% and the book offers 2.10. Expected value: 0.50 × 2.10 − 1 = +5%. Every 100 staked returns 105 on average. If the odds were 1.90, the same estimate gives 0.50 × 1.90 − 1 = −5% — no value. The value bet calculator runs this for any inputs.
Where the edge must come from
The odds already include the margin, so beating them requires an estimate better than the market's: a model, faster information, or a market segment the book prices lazily. «I feel the favourite wins» is not an edge.
The distance caveat
Positive expected value pays only over a long series of bets. A +5% edge still loses the individual bet half the time — variance dominates short samples.
On ScanGoal
The picks page publishes our model's value picks with results, calibration and CLV tables — losses included. Picks are also posted to the Telegram channel before kick-off.