Millwall vs Derby — preview, stats, live

Championship

мар 10, 2026 at 22:45

Millwall

1:0

Derby

1.44

1.24

Championship: Millwall vs Derby on 10 Mar 2026 finished 1:0.

Millwall are in good form: 4-4-2 in their last 10, 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded per game. They are scoring in 12 straight.

Derby are in good form: 5-0-5 in their last 10, 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

Over 2.5 lands in 30% of Millwall's games and 50% of Derby's; both teams score in 50% and 50%.

Chance quality: xG 1.4 vs 1.2.

Head-to-head (5): Millwall 3, Derby 0, 2 draws.

Predicted: 1:1 (12%) · also likely 1:0 (9%)

Match statistics

55%

50%

Possession

1.44

1.24

Shots on target

Shots off target

Corners

Dangerous attacks

Yellow cards

By half (1H / 2H)

	1H		2H		FT
Metric	H	A	H	A	H	A
Shots on	3	0	1	0	4	0
Corners	5	2	1	0	6	2
Dangerous	29	17	24	27	53	44
Fouls	—	—	—	—	—	—
Yellow	0	0	0	3	0	3

Detailed statistics

	Goals Threshold: 2,5			Yellow cards Threshold: 4,5			Corners Threshold: 10,0
Metric			Total			Total			Total
Matches played	10	11	—	20	20	—	20	20	—
Total less	4 40%	4 36%	—	12 60%	12 60%	—	12 60%	10 50%	—
Total more	6 60%	7 64%	—	8 40%	8 40%	—	7 35%	6 30%	—
Matches home / away	4	5	—	20	20	—	20	20	—
Total less (home / away)	1 25%	2 40%	—	19 95%	15 75%	—	8 40%	10 50%	—
Total more (home / away)	3 75%	3 60%	—	1 5%	5 25%	—	11 55%	7 35%	—
Individual total (home / away)	2,25	2,00	4,25	1,25	2,10	3,35	5,80	3,70	9,50
Individual total (overall)	2,10	1,82	3,92	2,20	2,00	4,20	5,35	4,80	10,15
Avg total	2,90	3,18	3,04	4,05	4,00	4,03	10,20	9,70	9,95
Avg total (home / away)	3,25	3,40	3,33	2,60	3,45	3,03	10,60	9,45	10,03
Avg opponents' total	0,80	1,36	2,16	1,85	2,00	3,85	4,85	4,90	9,75
Avg opponents' total (home / away)	1,00	1,40	2,40	1,35	1,35	2,70	4,80	5,75	10,55
Predicted total	—	—	3,18	—	—	3,61	—	—	10,09

Referee

Matt Donohue

Last 2 months: 7 games · 29 YC total · 4.14 YC/game · 2 RC

Pinnacle cards line: 4 — referee avg above

07.03	Bristol City — Coventry	31-21	52
04.03	Fulham — West Ham	2-4	6
24.02	Blackburn — Bristol City	2-2	4
14.02	Manchester City — Salford City	0-2	2
31.01	Portsmouth — West Brom	0-2	2
20.01	Wrexham — Leicester	1-2	3

Last 10 matches

Millwall10 matches

Both teams to score50%

Clean sheets4 / 10

Scored7 / 10

scored 12 straight

Derby10 matches

Both teams to score50%

Clean sheets4 / 10

Scored9 / 10

Line trends

Statistical team streaks on goals, corners and cards over recent matches — where the signal holds steadiest. How to read the codes →

Millwall

↓Goals (match) under 4.5100%

↓Goals (match) under 5.5100%

↑Goals (team) over 0.5100%

Combined

↓Goals (match) under 5.596%

↑Goals (team) over 0.596%

↓Goals (match) under 4.591%

Derby

↓Goals (match) under 5.590%

↑Goals (team) over 0.590%

↓Corners (match) under 10.590%

↓Corners (match) under 11.590%

OverUnder

Head-to-head

Date	League	Home	Away			xG		%		On		Off		DA
10.12.25	Championship	Derby	Millwall	1	1	1.15	1.01	55%	45%	3	2	9	10	52	37	11	7	2	3
22.02.25	Championship	Derby	Millwall	0	1	0.42	2.48	51%	49%	0	2	9	6	47	44	4	4	2	0
19.10.24	Championship	Millwall	Derby	1	1	1.48	0.67	53%	47%	3	0	9	3	52	29	9	3	1	0
23.02.22	Championship	Derby	Millwall	1	2	—	—	66%	34%	3	4	13	3	69	27	9	1	1	1
06.11.21	Championship	Millwall	Derby	1	1	—	—	40%	60%	1	2	2	6	11	19	2	0	0	0
13.03.21	Championship	Derby	Millwall	0	1	—	—	70%	30%	3	1	10	1	55	19	3	1	1	1
05.12.20	Championship	Millwall	Derby	0	1	—	—	42%	54%	1	2	3	8	23	37	2	3	0	5
20.06.20	Championship	Millwall	Derby	2	3	—	—	40%	60%	5	5	7	8	54	32	6	3	0	2
14.12.19	Championship	Derby	Millwall	0	1	—	—	56%	44%	0	2	2	4	22	19	1	1	0	0
20.02.19	Championship	Derby	Millwall	0	1	—	—	66%	35%	0	1	5	2	15	53	2	1	1	3

Against common opponents (2 months)

Millwall

Date	League	Home	Away			xG		%		On		Off		DA
07.03.26	Championship	Hull	Millwall	1	3	2.50	1.26	56%	44%	6	4	17	5	76	38	5	2	2	4
28.02.26	Championship	Preston	Millwall	0	2	0.43	1.59	58%	42%	2	4	4	9	56	30	2	6	3	2
14.02.26	Championship	Sheff Wed	Millwall	1	2	0.91	2.14	32%	68%	2	7	6	12	18	46	3	11	3	2
24.01.26	Championship	Millwall	Charlton	4	0	3.89	0.11	53%	47%	6	1	17	2	71	30	6	3	1	1
17.01.26	Championship	Watford	Millwall	0	2	0.54	1.48	56%	44%	3	5	6	7	45	44	4	4	4	4

Derby

Date	League	Home	Away			xG		%		On		Off		DA
07.03.26	Championship	Derby	Sheff Wed	2	1	2.11	0.74	56%	44%	4	3	8	3	53	39	6	2	1	1	0
24.02.26	Championship	Hull	Derby	4	2	0.58	3.27	51%	49%	4	5	5	12	55	38	7	3	1	2	0
21.02.26	Championship	Watford	Derby	2	0	1.55	0.65	46%	54%	8	2	10	4	39	35	2	2	2	2	0
20.01.26	Championship	Charlton	Derby	1	2	0.87	1.71	61%	39%	3	6	6	10	47	31	4	0	0	3	1
17.01.26	Championship	Preston	Derby	0	1	0.73	1.75	51%	49%	1	4	10	14	35	58	5	10	2	5	0

Against similar-strength opponents

Matches with the same favourite/underdog setup by the bookmaker line.

Millwall (as favourite) odds 1.45–2.05

Record 3-0-2 (W-D-L), 1.6 scored / 1.2 conceded avg.

Date	League	Home	Away			xG		%		On		Off		DA
21.02.26	Championship	Millwall	Portsmouth	1	3	0.41	1.38	54%	46%	3	6	4	6	59	30	6	4	1	2	0
24.01.26	Championship	Millwall	Charlton	4	0	3.89	0.11	53%	47%	6	1	17	2	71	30	6	3	1	1	0
13.12.25	Championship	Millwall	Hull	1	3	0.88	2.03	57%	43%	7	6	4	5	51	40	5	1	0	3	1
26.11.25	Championship	Millwall	Sheff Wed	1	0	2.45	0.69	55%	45%	8	4	12	7	59	20	9	5	0	3	0
22.09.25	Championship	Millwall	Watford	1	0	0.68	0.73	38%	62%	2	4	7	7	52	51	7	4	1	0	0

Derby (vs a strong favourite) odds 1.01–2.30

Record 2-0-3 (W-D-L), 1.6 scored / 1.4 conceded avg.

Date	League	Home	Away			xG		%		On		Off		DA
21.02.26	Championship	Watford	Derby	2	0	1.55	0.65	46%	54%	8	2	10	4	39	35	2	2	2	2	0
07.02.26	Championship	Derby	Ipswich	1	2	1.03	1.27	54%	46%	1	5	8	8	56	47	3	7	2	4	1
30.01.26	Championship	Bristol City	Derby	0	5	0.22	1.92	60%	40%	1	7	6	10	33	46	5	1	1	1	0
17.01.26	Championship	Preston	Derby	0	1	0.73	1.75	51%	49%	1	4	10	14	35	58	5	10	2	5	0
11.01.26	FA Cup	Derby	Leeds	1	3	0.41	2.01	34%	66%	2	11	5	11	27	56	5	5	1	1	0

Last matches (2 months)

Millwall WWWLWWDWLW

Date	League	Home	Away			xG		%		On		Off		DA
07.03.26	Championship	Hull	Millwall	1	3	2.50	1.26	56%	44%	6	4	17	5	76	38	5	2	2	4	0
28.02.26	Championship	Preston	Millwall	0	2	0.43	1.59	58%	42%	2	4	4	9	56	30	2	6	3	2	0
25.02.26	Championship	Millwall	Birmingham	3	0	1.21	0.11	48%	52%	5	2	6	4	48	34	7	5	1	1	1
21.02.26	Championship	Millwall	Portsmouth	1	3	0.41	1.38	54%	46%	3	6	4	6	59	30	6	4	1	2	0
14.02.26	Championship	Sheff Wed	Millwall	1	2	0.91	2.14	32%	68%	2	7	6	12	18	46	3	11	3	2	0
07.02.26	Championship	Wrexham	Millwall	0	2	1.52	0.58	54%	46%	2	2	9	5	39	34	5	4	1	3	0
31.01.26	Championship	Millwall	Sheff United	1	1	1.34	0.85	54%	46%	3	5	6	5	56	39	5	8	2	0	0
24.01.26	Championship	Millwall	Charlton	4	0	3.89	0.11	53%	47%	6	1	17	2	71	30	6	3	1	1	0
20.01.26	Championship	Coventry	Millwall	2	1	2.04	0.98	62%	38%	4	4	10	9	62	38	4	3	2	1	0
17.01.26	Championship	Watford	Millwall	0	2	0.54	1.48	56%	44%	3	5	6	7	45	44	4	4	4	4	0

Derby WWLLWLWDWW

Date	League	Home	Away			xG		%		On		Off		DA
07.03.26	Championship	Derby	Sheff Wed	2	1	2.11	0.74	56%	44%	4	3	8	3	53	39	6	2	1	1	0	0
28.02.26	Championship	Derby	Blackburn	3	1	1.44	0.60	49%	51%	5	3	8	7	48	41	2	3	3	4	0	0
24.02.26	Championship	Hull	Derby	4	2	0.58	3.27	51%	49%	4	5	5	12	55	38	7	3	1	2	0	0
21.02.26	Championship	Watford	Derby	2	0	1.55	0.65	46%	54%	8	2	10	4	39	35	2	2	2	2	0	0
14.02.26	Championship	Derby	Swansea	2	0	0.80	1.00	28%	72%	6	2	5	12	19	38	6	2	2	2	0	0
07.02.26	Championship	Derby	Ipswich	1	2	1.03	1.27	54%	46%	1	5	8	8	56	47	3	7	2	4	1	0
30.01.26	Championship	Bristol City	Derby	0	5	0.22	1.92	60%	40%	1	7	6	10	33	46	5	1	1	1	0	0
23.01.26	Championship	Derby	West Brom	1	1	0.29	0.96	58%	42%	1	4	4	9	39	42	1	6	2	3	0	0
20.01.26	Championship	Charlton	Derby	1	2	0.87	1.71	61%	39%	3	6	6	10	47	31	4	0	0	3	0	1
17.01.26	Championship	Preston	Derby	0	1	0.73	1.75	51%	49%	1	4	10	14	35	58	5	10	2	5	0	0

Bookmaker lines

1X212,00X3,4023,60

Total 2,50O1,95U1,90

AH -0,5012,0321,83

All Pinnacle markets

Goals

Goals total
Line	O	U
1.5	1.32	3.56
2	1.49	2.75
2.25	1.73	2.20
2.5	1.97	1.92
2.75	2.25	1.70
3	2.76	1.48
3.5	3.49	1.32
4.5	7.05	1.12

Team goals
Team	Line	O	U
Millwall	1.5	2.08	1.79
Derby	0.5	1.44	2.89

Corners

Corners total
Line	O	U
11	1.37	3.05
11.5	1.61	2.33
12	1.83	2.00
12.5	2.13	1.72
13	2.64	1.48

Team corners
Team	Line	O	U
Millwall	8	1.76	2.05
Derby	3.5	1.72	2.11

Cards

Cards total
Line	O	U
4	2.02	1.78

See full live table on ScanGoal →

Other matches that day

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