How a shot becomes a number
The model looks at where the shot was taken, from what angle, with foot or head, after a cross or a through ball. A penalty is worth about 0.76 xG; a hopeful strike from 30 metres — around 0.03. Add up all shots and you get the match xG, say 2.1 vs 0.4.
xG vs the actual score
The score says what happened; xG says what the chances deserved. A 1:0 win with xG 0.5 vs 2.3 usually means the winner rode its luck or its goalkeeper. Over a long run teams converge to their xG — that is why it beats raw results for judging form.
Limits
xG models differ between providers, know nothing about the goalkeeper's positioning on a given shot, and say little in tiny samples — one match is a hint, ten matches is a signal.
On ScanGoal
Where sources provide shot data we show match xG, and pre-match team strength on the live table is xG-based.