Why the closing line is the benchmark
By kick-off the line has absorbed all public information and the money of the sharpest bettors — it is the best available estimate of true probability. Beating it systematically means you were ahead of the market, not lucky.
How to compute it
You took 2.10; the line closed at 2.00. Fair-probability terms: you got 47.6% priced when the market's final answer was 50% — positive CLV. Over a large sample CLV predicts long-term profit far better than a short-term winrate.
On ScanGoal
The picks page publishes the average CLV of our value picks in the transparency block — computed against the Pinnacle closing line.