Group D: United States, Paraguay, Australia, Turkey. Co-hosts USA share the toughest balanced group with a dangerous Turkey, a stubborn Paraguay and a physical Australia. No one here is safe.
Key stats of each team
Below are numbers from each team's recent matches, computed from the ScanGoal database. Each card ends with auto-insights — what stands out in the data.
United States last 12 months · 16 matches| Goals for/game | 1.9 |
| Goals against/game | 1.5 |
| xG for/game | 1.5 |
| xG against/game | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% |
| Both teams score | 75% |
| Corners/game | 5.1 |
| Yellow cards/game | 1.5 |
| Shots on target/game | 4.9 |
- a high-scoring side: over 2.5 goals in 69% of games
- goals at both ends — BTTS in 75% of games
- out-finishing their xG
Paraguay last 12 months · 11 matches| Goals for/game | 1.3 |
| Goals against/game | 1.2 |
| xG for/game | 0.9 |
| xG against/game | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Both teams score | 45% |
| Corners/game | 4.3 |
| Yellow cards/game | 1.7 |
| Shots on target/game | 4.3 |
- toothless: just 0.9 xG per game
- out-finishing their xG
Australia last 12 months · 12 matches| Goals for/game | 1.3 |
| Goals against/game | 1.0 |
| xG for/game | 0.7 |
| xG against/game | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| Both teams score | 33% |
| Corners/game | 2.4 |
| Yellow cards/game | 1.4 |
| Shots on target/game | 2.9 |
- tilts under: under 2.5 goals in 67% of games
- often one-sided for goals: both teams score in just 33%
- few corners — 2.4 per game
- toothless: just 0.7 xG per game
- out-finishing their xG
Turkey last 12 months · 12 matches| Goals for/game | 2.1 |
| Goals against/game | 1.3 |
| xG for/game | 1.5 |
| xG against/game | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Both teams score | 42% |
| Corners/game | 7.8 |
| Yellow cards/game | 1.9 |
| Shots on target/game | 5.5 |
- a high-scoring side: over 2.5 goals in 58% of games
- a strong attack — 2.1 goals per game
- works the flanks — 7.8 corners per game
- out-finishing their xG
Form going in
United States — recent form WWLWLL| 19.06.26 | USA2:0xG 1.3 : 0.4Australia | World Cup 2026 |
| 13.06.26 | USA4:1xG 1.4 : 0.5Paraguay | World Cup 2026 |
| 06.06.26 | USA1:2xG 1.0 : 1.4Germany | Friendlies |
| 31.05.26 | USA3:2xG 2.3 : 1.7Senegal | Friendlies |
| 01.04.26 | USA0:2xG 0.7 : 0.7Portugal | Friendlies |
| 28.03.26 | USA2:5Belgium | International Match |
Paraguay — recent form WWLWLW| 20.06.26 | Turkey0:1xG 2.1 : 0.3Paraguay | World Cup 2026 |
| 13.06.26 | USA4:1xG 1.4 : 0.5Paraguay | World Cup 2026 |
| 06.06.26 | Paraguay4:0Nicaragua | International Match |
| 31.03.26 | Morocco2:1xG 1.1 : 0.8Paraguay | International Friendly |
| 27.03.26 | Greece0:1Paraguay | Friendlies |
| 19.11.25 | Mexico1:2xG 2.1 : 1.9Paraguay | Friendlies |
Who goes through
Turkey, with arguably the best individual talent in the group, and the USA, with home advantage, are favourites to advance. Paraguay's low-block can sneak a point or two and blow it open; Australia will run all day.
Dark horse & possible upset
Paraguay are the classic spoiler: their defensive record makes them brutal to break down, and one set-piece can flip a match. They are the most likely team to deny a host or a fancied side.
Squads: call-ups & shocks
Co-hosts USA under Mauricio Pochettino built around Christian Pulisic, Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie, with Tim Ream named captain and Folarin Balogun up top. The debate was Gio Reyna's inclusion despite barely playing (around 137 league minutes this year); 13 of the 26 are first-time World Cup players. Source: ESPN.
Betting angles
Mixed profiles make this a per-match group. USA fixtures lean to goals; Paraguay games skew under. Cards can run high given the physicality — keep an eye on booking markets.
Remember: totals, corners and cards are markets where our national-team data is most useful. Cross-check live odds and our Value Picks of the day; the handicap mechanics are covered in our Asian handicap guide.
Analysis only. Betting is 18+, please gamble responsibly.