Top value picks for 2026-06-22
List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.
Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
| Time |
Match |
Outcome |
Fair |
Book |
Edge |
VS |
Result |
Signals |
|
19:00
22.06
|
Fana — Sogndal 2
3 Division
|
Handicap
AH2 -0.5
|
1,83 |
2,00 |
+4,6% |
31 |
— |
form 66 |
🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)
Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked); realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.
| Time | Match | Index | BTTS odds |
|---|
| 21:45 | Shelbourne — Bohemians Dublin | 83 | 1,79 |
| 02:00 | New York Red Bulls II — Toronto FC II | 81 | 1,46 |
| 22:15 | KR Reykjavik — IA Akranes | 81 | 2,99 |
| 01:00 | Columbus Crew 2 — Atlanta United II | 78 | 1,33 |
| 20:00 | Oddevold — Ljungskile | 72 | 4,15 |
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
| Model said | Actual | Picks |
|---|
| ~57,4% | 50,4% | 6 562 |
| ~64,3% | 51,8% | 10 216 |
| ~73,2% | 53,2% | 2 817 |
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
| Edge | Winrate | CLV | Picks |
|---|
| <5% | 50,9% | +0,15% | 3 614 |
| 5-10% | 51,0% | +0,28% | 7 342 |
| 10-20% | 51,8% | +0,34% | 7 330 |
| 20%+ | 54,8% | +0,37% | 1 309 |
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.