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Top value picks for 2026-06-20 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
‹ 19.06 2026-06-20 21.06 › Today
Market:
All 1X2 Total Handicap
Sort:
VS Edge Time
📊 Report
Time Match Outcome Fair Book Edge VS Result Signals
09:30 20.06 Belconnen United — Queanbeyan City
Capital Territory Premier League
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,34 1,98 +24,1% 62 1:2L form 87
10:00 20.06 Central Coast United FC — Granville Rage
Australia New South Wales League 2
 Handicap AH1 -0.5 1,40 2,00 +21,2% 53 3:1W form 70
16:00 20.06 Cheng Fung — Gorilla Of The Universe SC
Primeira Divisao
 Handicap AH1 -1.5 1,41 1,98 +20,1% 48 4:4L
10:00 20.06 Central Coast United FC — Granville Rage
Australia New South Wales League 2
 1X2 Home 1,40 1,95 +20,0% 51 3:1W form 70
11:00 20.06 Taringa Rovers — Grange Thistle
Australia FQPL 2
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,40 1,90 +19,0% 47 0:0L
17:00 20.06 Magni Grenivik — Selfoss
2. Deild
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,41 1,90 +18,4% 46 4:1L
21:00 20.06 Matonense SP — Mogi Mirim U23
Campeonato Paulista A2
 Total Over 2.5 1,43 1,90 +17,3% 51 2:1W form 65
23:00 20.06 Trasandino De Los Andes — Santiago City
Segunda
 Total Under 2.5 1,43 1,90 +17,2% 42 5:1L
14:00 20.06 Skjetten — Alta
3 Division
 Total Over 3.5 1,46 1,95 +17,1% 45 1:1L
21:00 20.06 Lokomotiv Oslo — Frigg
3 Division
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,45 1,85 +14,7% 38 1:3W
21:00 20.06 Guarulhos U23 — SC Paulinense U23
Campeonato Paulista A2
 1X2 Home 1,52 1,95 +14,4% 45 —
16:00 20.06 Lyn Oslo 2 — Lillehammer
3 Division
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,49 1,90 +14,4% 44 3:5W form 90
12:15 20.06 St George City FA — NWS Spirit FC
Northern NSW Premier League
 Total Under 2.5 1,51 1,85 +12,0% 29 1:0W
08:30 20.06 Playford City Patriots — Campbelltown City
NPL South Australia
 Total Under 3.5 1,60 1,95 +11,2% 27 4:1L
22:00 20.06 Cleveland Force SC — Lorain County Levi..
USL League Two
 Total Over 3.5 1,60 1,95 +11,2% 39 0:5W
11:30 20.06 North Star — Broadbeach United
NPL Queensland
 Total Under 3.5 1,59 1,93 +11,0% 32 1:3L
21:00 20.06 Guarulhos U23 — SC Paulinense U23
Campeonato Paulista A2
 Total Over 2.5 1,56 1,88 +10,9% 30 —
08:00 20.06 Western Sydney Wanderers NPL — Sutherland Sharks
Northern NSW Premier League
 1X2 Home 1,65 2,00 +10,6% 29 0:3L
10:00 20.06 Hawkesbury City SC — Fraser Park
Australia New South Wales League 2
 Total Under 3.5 1,62 1,95 +10,5% 31 1:1W
11:00 20.06 Moreton City Excelsior — Wynnum Wolves
NPL Queensland
 Total Under 3.5 1,70 2,00 +8,9% 27 2:2L
16:30 20.06 Kvik Halden — Sotra
2nd Division
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,72 1,98 +7,5% 44 2:1L trend 78
15:30 20.06 Civo United — Silver Strikers
Super League
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,61 1,83 +7,1% 28 1:1L form 76
10:00 20.06 Capalaba Fc — Sunshine Coast Wanderers
NPL Queensland
 Total Over 3.5 1,71 1,95 +7,1% 24 0:5W
23:00 20.06 Deportes Linares — Deportes Rengo Unido
Segunda
 Total Under 2.5 1,59 1,78 +6,7% 25 3:1L
16:00 20.06 Cheng Fung — Gorilla Of The Universe SC
Primeira Divisao
 Total Over 4.5 1,74 1,98 +6,7% 21 4:4W
23:00 20.06 Philadelphia Lone Star FC — Delaware FC
USL League Two
 Total Over 3.5 1,63 1,83 +6,6% 18 0:5W
10:00 20.06 Olympic Kingsway — Stirling Macedonia
NPL Western Australia
 1X2 Home 1,46 1,62 +6,5% 24 0:3L
15:30 20.06 Civo United — Silver Strikers
Super League
 1X2 Away 1,61 1,80 +6,4% 27 1:1L form 76
17:00 20.06 Integracion Del Norte San Juan FC — Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz
Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar
 Handicap AH1 -0.5 1,68 1,88 +6,1% 26 1:0W form 75
15:00 20.06 Nardo Norwegian — NTNUI
3 Division
 Total Over 3.5 1,75 1,95 +6,0% 17 2:0L
10:00 20.06 Hills Brumbies — Prospect United
Australia New South Wales League 1
 1X2 Home 1,48 1,62 +5,8% 25 0:0L form 70
14:30 20.06 Belshina Bobruisk — Torpedo Zhodino
Premier League
 Total Over 2.5 1,74 1,93 +5,6% 19 0:2L
16:30 20.06 Kvik Halden — Sotra
2nd Division
 1X2 Away 1,72 1,90 +5,5% 21 2:1L
22:00 20.06 Almeria — Malaga
Segunda
 Total Over 2.5 1,78 1,95 +5,0% 34 1:2W
23:00 20.06 Middleham United — Portsmouth Bombers
Liga
 1X2 Away 1,54 1,67 +4,7% 20 1:1L
16:00 20.06 Daugavpils — SC Grobinas
Virsliga
 Total Under 2.5 1,69 1,83 +4,3% 26 1:0W
22:00 20.06 Club Atletico Temperley — San Martin Tucuman
Primera B Metropolitana
 Total Over 1.5 1,68 1,81 +4,2% 31 1:1W trend 61
17:00 20.06 Integracion Del Norte San Juan FC — Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz
Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar
 1X2 Home 1,68 1,80 +3,9% 22 1:0W form 75
🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)
Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked); realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.
TimeMatchIndexBTTS odds
10:00Olympic Kingsway — Stirling Macedonia931,43
10:00Fremantle City — Dianella White Eagles861,38
20:00Netherlands — Sweden811,60
10:00Perth Glory NPL — Perth RedStar FC801,36
15:00Kjelsas — Ull/Kisa771,50
12:00Balcatta — Perth SC761,40
08:30West Adelaide — Croydon FC761,34
23:00Inter Miami CF II — Carolina Core FC751,52
10:00Western Knights — Bayswater City751,45
19:30Coquimbo Unido — Iquique721,70
🎯 Top value picks — 20.06.2026
USL League Two 22:00
Cleveland Force SC 0
Lorain County Levi.. 5
Over 3.5 1,95
value +11,2% ★★★★★
100$ → +95$ won
✓✓✓
Campeonato Paulista A2 21:00
Guarulhos U23 —
SC Paulinense U23 —
Guarulhos U23 1,95
value +14,4% ★★★★★
100$ → +95$ if wins
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
Model saidActualPicks
~57,4%50,4%6 562
~64,3%51,8%10 216
~73,2%53,2%2 817
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
EdgeWinrateCLVPicks
<5%50,9%+0,15%3 614
5-10%51,0%+0,28%7 342
10-20%51,8%+0,34%7 330
20%+54,8%+0,37%1 309
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.