Top value picks for 2026-06-21 archive
List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.
Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
| Time | Match | Outcome | Fair | Book | Edge | VS | Result | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:15 21.06 |
Aegir Thorlakshofn — Throttur Reykjavik
1. Deild
|
Handicap AH2 -1.5 | 1,35 | 1,95 | +22,6% | 54 | 1:3W | |
| 17:00 21.06 |
Flora Tallinn — Paide Linnameeskond
Meistriliiga
|
Handicap AH1 -0.5 | 1,43 | 1,85 | +15,7% | 47 | 1:2L | form 90 |
| 21:00 21.06 |
Juventus Jaragua do Sul — Tubarao
Catarinense 2
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,51 | 1,95 | +15,1% | 38 | 0:2W | |
| 17:00 21.06 |
Egersund — Haugesund
Norway Division 1
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,53 | 1,85 | +11,5% | 34 | 5:2L | form 66 |
| 22:00 21.06 |
Lagarto FC — Centro Sportivo Alagoano
Serie D
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,56 | 1,90 | +11,3% | 41 | 1:1L | |
| 15:00 21.06 |
Stabaek 2 — Varhaug
3 Division
|
Handicap AH1 +0.5 | 1,71 | 1,90 | +6,0% | 18 | 1:4L | |
| 14:30 21.06 |
JK Tammeka Tartu — Trans Narva
Meistriliiga
|
Handicap AH1 -0.5 | 1,71 | 1,83 | +3,7% | 18 | 1:0W |
🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)
Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked); realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.
| Time | Match | Index | BTTS odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21:00 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar — Stjarnan | 81 | 3,02 |
| 17:00 | Kristianstad — Laholms | 79 | 1,60 |
| 05:00 | Monterey Bay FC — El Paso Locomotive FC | 77 | 1,70 |
| 17:00 | Odd BK — Hodd | 77 | 1,63 |
| 17:00 | Malmo — BK Olympic | 77 | 1,52 |
| 05:30 | Las Vegas — Orange County Blues FC | 75 | 1,65 |
| 19:00 | IR Reykjavik — Volsungur | 73 | 1,68 |
| 21:00 | Valur — Keflavik | 73 | 2,89 |
| 17:00 | Olympique Safi — US Yacoub El Mansour | 73 | 1,96 |
| 15:30 | Trygg/Lade — Lorenskog | 72 | 1,53 |
| 15:00 | Rana FK — Follo | 72 | 1,45 |
| 14:00 | Honefoss — Eidsvold Turn | 71 | 1,32 |
| 03:00 | Maranhao — Paysandu | 70 | 1,90 |
| 13:00 | Arendal — Traeff | 70 | 1,59 |
🎯 Top value picks — 21.06.2026
KW
League
20:45
Under 2.5
1,90
value +14,5%
★★★★★
100$ → +90$ lost
✗
Premier League
21:00
Over 3.5
1,95
value +13,1%
★★★★★
100$ → +95$ lost
✗
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
| Model said | Actual | Picks |
|---|---|---|
| ~57,4% | 50,4% | 6 562 |
| ~64,3% | 51,8% | 10 216 |
| ~73,2% | 53,2% | 2 817 |
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
| Edge | Winrate | CLV | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5% | 50,9% | +0,15% | 3 614 |
| 5-10% | 51,0% | +0,28% | 7 342 |
| 10-20% | 51,8% | +0,34% | 7 330 |
| 20%+ | 54,8% | +0,37% | 1 309 |
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.