Top value picks for 2026-06-20 archive
List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.
Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
| Time | Match | Outcome | Fair | Book | Edge | VS | Result | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:00 20.06 |
Matonense SP — Mogi Mirim U23
Campeonato Paulista A2
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,43 | 1,90 | +17,3% | 51 | 2:1W | form 65 |
| 23:00 20.06 |
Trasandino De Los Andes — Santiago City
Segunda
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,43 | 1,90 | +17,2% | 42 | 5:1L | |
| 14:00 20.06 |
Skjetten — Alta
3 Division
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,46 | 1,95 | +17,1% | 45 | 1:1L | |
| 12:15 20.06 |
St George City FA — NWS Spirit FC
Northern NSW Premier League
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,51 | 1,85 | +12,0% | 29 | 1:0W | |
| 08:30 20.06 |
Playford City Patriots — Campbelltown City
NPL South Australia
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,60 | 1,95 | +11,2% | 27 | 4:1L | |
| 22:00 20.06 |
Cleveland Force SC — Lorain County Levi..
USL League Two
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,60 | 1,95 | +11,2% | 39 | 0:5W | |
| 11:30 20.06 |
North Star — Broadbeach United
NPL Queensland
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,59 | 1,93 | +11,0% | 32 | 1:3L | |
| 21:00 20.06 |
Guarulhos U23 — SC Paulinense U23
Campeonato Paulista A2
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,56 | 1,88 | +10,9% | 30 | — | |
| 10:00 20.06 |
Hawkesbury City SC — Fraser Park
Australia New South Wales League 2
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,62 | 1,95 | +10,5% | 31 | 1:1W | |
| 11:00 20.06 |
Moreton City Excelsior — Wynnum Wolves
NPL Queensland
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,70 | 2,00 | +8,9% | 27 | 2:2L | |
| 10:00 20.06 |
Capalaba Fc — Sunshine Coast Wanderers
NPL Queensland
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,71 | 1,95 | +7,1% | 24 | 0:5W | |
| 23:00 20.06 |
Deportes Linares — Deportes Rengo Unido
Segunda
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,59 | 1,78 | +6,7% | 25 | 3:1L | |
| 16:00 20.06 |
Cheng Fung — Gorilla Of The Universe SC
Primeira Divisao
|
Total Over 4.5 | 1,74 | 1,98 | +6,7% | 21 | 4:4W | |
| 23:00 20.06 |
Philadelphia Lone Star FC — Delaware FC
USL League Two
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,63 | 1,83 | +6,6% | 18 | 0:5W | |
| 15:00 20.06 |
Nardo Norwegian — NTNUI
3 Division
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,75 | 1,95 | +6,0% | 17 | 2:0L | |
| 14:30 20.06 |
Belshina Bobruisk — Torpedo Zhodino
Premier League
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,74 | 1,93 | +5,6% | 19 | 0:2L | |
| 22:00 20.06 |
Almeria — Malaga
Segunda
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,78 | 1,95 | +5,0% | 34 | 1:2W | |
| 16:00 20.06 |
Daugavpils — SC Grobinas
Virsliga
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,69 | 1,83 | +4,3% | 26 | 1:0W | |
| 22:00 20.06 |
Club Atletico Temperley — San Martin Tucuman
Primera B Metropolitana
|
Total Over 1.5 | 1,68 | 1,81 | +4,2% | 31 | 1:1W | trend 61 |
🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)
Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked). In the “Value” column, stars = model hit probability (★★★★★ ≥80%) and “+X%” = edge over the market; shown only where value exists (model above market), else “—”. Realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.
| Time | Match | Index | BTTS odds | Value | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | Olympic Kingsway — Stirling Macedonia | 93 | 1,43 | — | 0:3 ✗ |
| 10:00 | Fremantle City — Dianella White Eagles | 86 | 1,38 | +7,6% ★★★★★ | 1:0 ✗ |
| 20:00 | Netherlands — Sweden | 81 | 1,60 | — | 5:1 ✓ |
| 10:00 | Perth Glory NPL — Perth RedStar FC | 80 | 1,36 | — | 1:2 ✓ |
| 15:00 | Kjelsas — Ull/Kisa | 77 | 1,50 | +5,7% ★★★★★ | 3:0 ✗ |
| 12:00 | Balcatta — Perth SC | 76 | 1,40 | — | 1:1 ✓ |
| 08:30 | West Adelaide — Croydon FC | 76 | 1,34 | — | 5:5 ✓ |
| 23:00 | Inter Miami CF II — Carolina Core FC | 75 | 1,52 | — | 0:0 ✗ |
| 10:00 | Western Knights — Bayswater City | 75 | 1,45 | — | 4:4 ✓ |
| 19:30 | Coquimbo Unido — Iquique | 72 | 1,70 | — | 3:0 ✗ |
BTTS hit: 5/10 (50%)
🎯 Top value picks — 20.06.2026
USL League Two
22:00
Over 3.5
1,95
value +11,2%
★★★★★
100$ → +95$ won
✓✓✓
Campeonato Paulista A2
21:00
Guarulhos U23
—
SC Paulinense U23
—
Guarulhos U23
1,95
value +14,4%
★★★★★
100$ → +95$ if wins
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
| Model said | Actual | Picks |
|---|---|---|
| ~57,4% | 50,4% | 6 562 |
| ~64,3% | 51,8% | 10 216 |
| ~73,2% | 53,2% | 2 817 |
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
| Edge | Winrate | CLV | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5% | 50,9% | +0,15% | 3 614 |
| 5-10% | 51,0% | +0,28% | 7 342 |
| 10-20% | 51,8% | +0,34% | 7 330 |
| 20%+ | 54,8% | +0,37% | 1 309 |
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.