Top value picks for 2026-06-21 archive
List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.
Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
| Time | Match | Outcome | Fair | Book | Edge | VS | Result | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 21.06 |
Fujieda City Hall — Kariya
Regional League
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,43 | 1,95 | +18,6% | 46 | 2:1L | |
| 15:00 21.06 |
Okzhetpes — Tobol Kostanay
Premier League
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,48 | 2,00 | +17,7% | 43 | 2:1L | |
| 08:00 21.06 |
Wollongong Wolves — Sydney FC NPL
Northern NSW Premier League
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,46 | 1,95 | +17,5% | 42 | 2:3L | |
| 22:15 21.06 |
HK Kopavogur — Grindavik
1. Deild
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,41 | 1,85 | +16,9% | 53 | 2:2L | |
| 20:45 21.06 |
Al Shabab SC — Al Jahra
League
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,49 | 1,90 | +14,5% | 30 | 1:2L | |
| 15:00 21.06 |
Stabaek 2 — Varhaug
3 Division
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,56 | 2,00 | +14,1% | 34 | 1:4W | |
| 16:00 21.06 |
FC Merani Tbilisi — FC Orbi
Erovnuli Liga 3
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,50 | 1,88 | +13,7% | 47 | 1:1W | |
| 21:00 21.06 |
IBV Vestmannaeyjar — Stjarnan
Premier League
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,55 | 1,95 | +13,1% | 31 | 2:1L | |
| 11:00 21.06 |
Central Stallions — Ulaanbaatar
Premier League
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,60 | 2,00 | +12,5% | 47 | 0:3L | form 79 |
| 20:45 21.06 |
Al Tadamon — Al-Nasr Kuwait
League
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,51 | 1,85 | +12,3% | 33 | 1:1W | |
| 12:00 21.06 |
Pocheon Citizen FC — Gangneung City
National League K3
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,48 | 1,78 | +11,3% | 43 | 3:1L | |
| 16:30 21.06 |
Ymir Kopavogur — Hottur - Huginn
3. Deild
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,59 | 1,93 | +11,0% | 27 | 2:3L | |
| 23:15 21.06 |
Fram Reykjavik — Vikingur Reykjavik
Premier League
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,52 | 1,83 | +10,8% | 52 | 0:5W | form 89 |
| 09:00 21.06 |
Brisbane Olympic — Peninsula Power FC
NPL Queensland
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,63 | 1,98 | +10,8% | 31 | 1:3W | |
| 21:00 21.06 |
Fluminense De Feira — SSA FC
Campeonato Baiano 2
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,53 | 1,83 | +10,5% | 48 | 4:0W | form 92 |
| 18:00 21.06 |
Grorud — Junkeren
2nd Division
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,58 | 1,88 | +9,8% | 44 | 3:0W | trend 63 |
| 10:00 21.06 |
North Brisbane — Redcliffe Dolphins SC
Australia Queensland Premier League 3
|
Total Under 4.5 | 1,66 | 1,98 | +9,7% | 24 | 1:2W | |
| 10:00 21.06 |
St Albans Saints — Altona Magic
Australia Victoria Premier League
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,65 | 1,95 | +9,5% | 25 | 2:1W | |
| 10:00 21.06 |
Geumsan Insam — Jincheon HR
South Korea K4 League
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,70 | 2,00 | +9,0% | 25 | 2:2W | |
| 14:00 21.06 |
Honefoss — Eidsvold Turn
2nd Division
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,77 | 1,93 | +4,7% | 22 | 2:1L | form 66 |
| 22:15 21.06 |
Aegir Thorlakshofn — Throttur Reykjavik
1. Deild
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,71 | 1,85 | +4,4% | 18 | 1:3L | |
| 16:00 21.06 |
Helsingborg — GIF Sundsvall
Superettan
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,81 | 1,95 | +3,9% | 14 | 5:2W | |
| 16:00 21.06 |
Jelgava — Tukums 2000
Virsliga
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,70 | 1,80 | +3,5% | 14 | 4:1W |
🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)
Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked); realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.
| Time | Match | Index | BTTS odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21:00 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar — Stjarnan | 81 | 3,02 |
| 17:00 | Kristianstad — Laholms | 79 | 1,60 |
| 05:00 | Monterey Bay FC — El Paso Locomotive FC | 77 | 1,70 |
| 17:00 | Odd BK — Hodd | 77 | 1,63 |
| 17:00 | Malmo — BK Olympic | 77 | 1,52 |
| 05:30 | Las Vegas — Orange County Blues FC | 75 | 1,65 |
| 19:00 | IR Reykjavik — Volsungur | 73 | 1,68 |
| 21:00 | Valur — Keflavik | 73 | 2,89 |
| 17:00 | Olympique Safi — US Yacoub El Mansour | 73 | 1,96 |
| 15:30 | Trygg/Lade — Lorenskog | 72 | 1,53 |
| 15:00 | Rana FK — Follo | 72 | 1,45 |
| 14:00 | Honefoss — Eidsvold Turn | 71 | 1,32 |
| 03:00 | Maranhao — Paysandu | 70 | 1,90 |
| 13:00 | Arendal — Traeff | 70 | 1,59 |
🎯 Top value picks — 21.06.2026
KW
League
20:45
Under 2.5
1,90
value +14,5%
★★★★★
100$ → +90$ lost
✗
Premier League
21:00
Over 3.5
1,95
value +13,1%
★★★★★
100$ → +95$ lost
✗
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
| Model said | Actual | Picks |
|---|---|---|
| ~57,4% | 50,4% | 6 562 |
| ~64,3% | 51,8% | 10 216 |
| ~73,2% | 53,2% | 2 817 |
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
| Edge | Winrate | CLV | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5% | 50,9% | +0,15% | 3 614 |
| 5-10% | 51,0% | +0,28% | 7 342 |
| 10-20% | 51,8% | +0,34% | 7 330 |
| 20%+ | 54,8% | +0,37% | 1 309 |
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.